Wall Street Strategist Tom Lee Predicts S&P Rally in 2019
Wall Street strategist Tom Lee, believes the massive sell-off in equities recorded in the U.S. financial markets within the fourth quarter of 2018 is nothing more than a “mid-life” crisis laying the groundwork for even larger gains in the financial market.
Speaking in an interview with CNBC’s Fast Money: Half Time Report, Lee noted that U.S. stocks are well on the way for double-digit increases in 2019, and that they might go as high as 17% this year. “The buy the dip, which people thought died last year, is back. The probability of a double-digit year we think is the highest since 2009.”
Friday’s Investor Notes
He shared a similar sentiment in his investor note, released on Friday morning, where he predicted that 2019 would see the S&P Index rise by 13 percent from its finishing point in 2018 (an increase which will mark a finishing point of 2,835). He argued that the major catalyst behind this increase would be a consistent expansion in profits.
“In short, we believe that the crash of 2018 mirrors the mid-life crisis seen during the middle of bull markets a la 1962 and 1987 and in both bases, the bull market found its footing at the 200-week moving average. That is currently (S&P 500) 2,350 or so. And both midlife crises saw a retest at that level. Is a retest in 2019 possible? Yes, but if so, we would view that as a buying opportunity.”
Lee, who serves as both co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC., also predicted an increase in earnings to $169 per share in 2019, and a further increase to $183 in 2020.
Lee’s note contained a bullish outlook on FAANG stocks- that is, stocks belonging to Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOGL), claiming that these shares often do well in odd number years. The Wall Street strategist said he sees a possibility for the market to be determined by the actions of some key demographics. Starting with millennials, Lee claims this demographics is responsible for driving well over 50% of GDP growth, and that their actions are more likely to affect companies such as Square (SQ), PayPal (PYPL) and Tesla (TSLA).
Lee also put his weight behind stocks of companies that are reportedly championing the course of artificial intelligence and automation, with names such as Dollar General (DG), Amazon, Nvidia (NVDA), among others being singled out by the analyst.
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